Individual Liberty — Individual Responsibility

For those we lost, We will not forget 09/11/2001

“Our God given unalienable rights are given to us all as individuals. They tell us what me may do for ourselves, and they are the embodiment of liberty. The so-called rights that government gives to some of us are parcelled out to select groups as classes. They tell us what one class of people may require another to do for them, and they are the very essence of slavery.”
— Perri Nelson, February 9, 2010

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Global warming prevents hurricanes?

Published Wed, Apr 18 2007 9:21 AM
Technorati Tags: Global Warming

Another link from OrbusMax -- The Associated Press is reporting on yet another global warming study based on computer modelling. This one raises the possibility that global warming makes it harder for hurricanes to form. From the Star-Gazette:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes may be running into some unexpected turbulence. Many researchers believe warming is causing the storms to get stronger, while others aren't so sure. Now, a new study raises the possibility that global warming might even make it harder for hurricanes to form.

The findings, by Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Brian J. Soden of the University of Miami, are reported in Wednesday's issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Vecchi and Soden used 18 complex computer climate models to anticipate the effects of warming in the years 2001-2020 and 2018-2100.

Included in the results were an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans.

Vertical wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes. When a hurricane encounters vertical wind shear the hurricane can weaken when the heat of rising air dissipates over a larger area.

Last year we were told, based on computer models, that global warming would increase the severity and frequency of hurricanes. This year we're told, based on computer models, that global warming might actually prevent hurricanes.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again... computer models are not scientific evidence. They're really good at illustrating scenarios that might arise from your favorite pet theory, but they don't qualify as experimental evidence. A good programmer can write a model or simulation and make it do whatever he wants it to by adjusting the parameters, by ignoring or emphasizing various simulated processes and so on.

If we are to believe the latest models, then the previous models were wrong, because they omitted important factors. What other important factors have been omitted from the models that the IPCC uses? What other important factors have been omitted from the models used to scare us into destroying our economy by cutting back on energy usage?

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